What If? Saving Bonds

In 2001, Barry Bonds set the all time home run record with 73 home runs.  I actually am a fan of Barry Bonds, say, pre-1998.  I think that you can separate that player from 1999 and on Bonds and still respect the game.

As a matter of fact, if you look at what he did from 1987 to 1998, he would at minimum be one of those on-the-fence Hall of Fame candidates.  In those years, he hit .294 with 395 home runs, 1168 RBIs, 1292 walks, and 409 stolen bases.  Throw in eight All Star appearances, three MVP awards, eight Gold Gloves and seven Silver Slugger awards, combined with his 99.6 WAR, he probably would have made it in after about four or five times on the ballot.

We’ll actually get into Bonds’ earlier years in the next blog post (spoiler alert – it’s a comparison blog with something he and only one other player has ever done!).  But for now, we’re going to look at his record breaking season of 2001.

 

TRIVIA QUESTION!

Which player has more home runs between his highest home run season and second highest home run season – Brady Anderson or Barry Bonds?  The answer will come a little later.

Coming into the 2001 season, was there anything that would indicate that Bonds was about to break the record?  I would say yes and no.  For nine years prior, he had 30+ home runs and an OPS over 1.000.  But he wasn’t really ever close to the record before.  As a matter of fact, his second highest home run season is tied for 44^th all time.

One other thing we must remember is that Barry Bonds was an ass.  There’s not really a better way to say it.  Some would probably state it worse actually.  It’s a pretty universally known fact.  So for today’s episode of What If?, we’re going to look at the scenario where Bonds only wanted to do the bare minimum.  I think that’s a pretty realistic scenario, don’t you?

This scenario will revolve around the premise that Bonds only wanted to accumulate the bare minimum plate appearances on the year to qualify for the batting title.  This would help Bonds save his body and prolong his career.  This was both a pretty time consuming and fun little exercise, as I had to literally comb through every one of his plate appearances that year. 

We’ll look and see what real Bonds and bare minimum Bonds did each month of that season.  We’ll assume that fake Bonds was in close contact with his agent, and he would let him know exactly where he stood as far as being on pace to get the needed at bats.  He’d still get his regular rest – in both instances, he only played in 153 games.  Once he hit his “on pace” target, he was taken out of the game.  Hang on, here we go!

April of that year got off to a slow start for real Bonds.  He did homer in his first game, but after his first seven games, that’s all he had, and was only batting .103 with one RBI and two walks vs. six strikeouts.  Over the next 15 games through the end of April, he did turn it up.  He hit .326 with 10 home runs and 21 RBIs, including three games with two home runs.  Overall, he batted .240 with 11 home runs and 22 RBIs.  Of his 13 walks, 3 were intentional.

Fake Bonds only hit .200 over the entire month of April, with seven home runs and 16 RBIs.  He’d add two stolen bases and three doubles, but only walked 10 times with 14 strikeouts.  Three of those walks were also intentional.  So far, fake Bonds is four home runs behind real Bonds.

In May, real Bonds LIT IT UP.  He hit 17 home runs, including nine from May 17-22.  He had two-two home run games, and one three home run game.  Over the course of the month, along with those homers, he hit .369 with 30 RBIs, 31 walks (five intentional) vs. 24 strikeouts and threw in three stolen bases.

Fake Bonds actually did a little better, hitting .371, and his slugging % was a little higher too at 1.065 vs. the 1.036 that real Bonds had.  But fake Bonds would again hit four fewer home runs, finishing with 13 home runs, 23 home runs, and 26 walks (four intentional) vs. 20 strikeouts.  Fake Bonds only had one stolen base.  So at this point, he was a full eight homers behind Real Bonds.

June proved to be a little more realistic for real Bonds.  He hit .297 with 11 home runs and 19 RBIs.  Pitchers started to be more careful though, as his walks jumped up to 34, with nine intentional, vs. just 15 strikeouts.  He only had one-two home run game.  He’d also add one stolen base.  As of June 29^th, Real Bonds sat at 39 home runs on the season.  He already had 78 walks, with 17 intentional.  And it wasn’t even the All Star break.

Again, fake Bonds hit slightly better in June, hitting .304 with eight home runs and 14 RBIs.  He had 22 walks, with six intentional, and just nine strikeouts.  Still, Fake Bonds only had 28 home runs at the break, and just 58 walks with 13 intentional.

In July, real Bonds was just taking what he was given.  He would hit .302, but he only had six home runs with 15 RBIs.  He actually only homered in four games, as he had two games with two home runs.  He had 30 walks with five intentional and only 11 strikeouts.  He’d also throw in two stolen bases.

Fake Bonds had and outstanding month, hitting .354 with six home runs and 15 RBIs.  He would have 23 walks (two intentional) vs. just four strikeouts.  He would also add a stolen base.  Four months into the season, real Bonds sat at 45 home runs vs. just 34 for fake Bonds.

August would see real Bonds return more to form.  He hit for a .350 average with 12 home runs and 26 RBIs.  Only one of his games that month was a two home run game.  He was walked 31 times, with five intentional, and had 17 strikeouts.  He had another three stolen bases.  He even threw in a triple for good measure.

Fake Bonds actually hit a little worse, but only slightly.  He still hit for a .344 average, but only had eight home runs and 16 RBIs.  He had 24 walks with three intentional, and had 13 strikeouts.  He also had three stolen bases and the triple.

Then came September 2001.  On September 9^th, the Giants wrapped up a three game series in Colorado in a 9-4 win with Bonds going 3-5 with three home runs and five RBIs.  The Giants would not play again for nine days due to the September 11^th attacks.  Despite playing in only 21 games that month, Bonds would finish with 12 home runs while hitting .365.  He had the three home run game in Colorado, plus another two home run game that month.  He’d add 20 RBIs, 28 walks (four intentional) and had 10 strikeouts.  He stole a couple more bases as well bringing his season total to 13.

Fake Bonds had an average of .404 with 10 home runs and 13 RBIs.  He had 22 walks (also four intentional) with eight strikeouts.  With one week left to go, real Bonds sat at 69 home runs, one short of the record, while fake Bonds was sitting on 52, which would still be a career high for real Bonds.

Real Bonds would hit four more homers over the first week of October, hitting .571 with five RBIs.  His record breaking game was a two home run game.  He had 10 walks, with four intentional, and only one strikeout.  His 73 home runs put him firmly at the top of the all time single season record.  He also had 177 walks, with 35 intentional.

Fake Bonds hit even better to the tune of .667.  He would add three home runs and three RBIs.  He had seven walks with two intentional and only one strikeout.  Fake Bonds would finish the season at 55 home runs.  He had 134 walks, with 24 intentional.

Besides saving his body some wear and tear, fake Bonds also hit eight points higher, .336 vs. .328 for real Bonds.  He also had slight leads in slugging % and on base %.  As I alluded to with fake Bonds’ total at the end of September, his final number of 55 still would be a career high.

I like that train of thought.

So let’s pose this question – what if fake Bonds hit 55 home runs instead of 73?  Would he have been the target of so much scrutiny over his habits?  That would have only been a leap of six home runs over his total of 49 a year earlier.  That would show a pretty good model of consistency.  But instead, he had to hit TWENTY FOUR more home runs than he had ever hit.

With those extra plate appearances, real Bonds hit .302, with 18 home runs and 37 RBIs.  He would have 44 walks, with 11 intentional and 24 strikeouts.  So those late game at bats really helped push Bonds over the edge.  Which is kind of puzzling.  You would think it would be the opposite, as he more than likely wouldn’t have been seeing the same pitcher nearly as often.  Maybe he just liked feasting on bullpen pitching.  Except for Todd Van Poppel.  In his career, Bonds was 0-5 with 4 strikeouts vs. Van Poppel.

Well, hopefully you enjoyed this piece on real Barry Bonds vs. fake Barry Bonds.  And before I forget, the answer to the trivia question.  In 1996, Orioles center fielder Brady Anderson swelled up (probably literally) and hit 50 home runs.  His next highest total?  That would be 24 in 1999.  So that’s a difference of 26 home runs.  As I stated a couple of paragraphs above, Bonds hit 49 home runs in 2000, and followed that up with 24 more the next year.

Give me a few days on the next topic.  It will be worth it.  I think it's even going to contain a Venn diagram, so there's something to look forward to.